How We Build a Football Prediction: A Step-by-Step Method
A worked example of our prediction method, using a hypothetical fixture: Team A vs Team B. Opinions, not certainties.
Table of contents
Quick answer
Our predictions follow a fixed method: estimate each side's chance from underlying performance, adjust for venue, schedule and team news, convert to probabilities, and compare them with the market's implied probabilities. We publish a prediction only when we can explain the reasoning — and we never present it as certain.
Step 1 — Underlying performance
We compare each team’s chance creation and chance prevention over recent matches, weighting the most recent more heavily.
Step 2 — Adjust for context
Venue, rest days, travel, rotation and confirmed team news. Each adjustment is written down with a reason.
Step 3 — Probabilities
| Outcome | Our estimate | Market odds | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team A win | 48% | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 | 28.6% |
| Team B win | 26% | 3.60 | 27.8% |
Step 4 — Compare and decide
Here our estimate for Team A (48%) is slightly above the implied 45.5%. That is a small, uncertain gap — the kind that only matters over many bets, and only if our estimates are genuinely good.
Step 5 — Publish with caveats
Every prediction states its reasoning and its risks. If team news changes, we update the article and the date.
Frequently asked questions
Are your predictions guaranteed?
No. They are the analyst's opinion based on evidence at the time of writing. Sport is unpredictable.
Do you sell tips?
No. Our predictions are free and educational.
Sources & references
- BeGambleAware www.begambleaware.org
- National Council on Problem Gambling www.ncpgambling.org
We check every figure against the source listed. Spotted an error? Request a correction.
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